So how does my story of speeding connect to stopping all crime you ask?

Its pretty straight forward. I used to speed when I figured I wouldn't get caught. I figured out that if I got caught I would maybe get a warning. I figured if I got a ticket, I could go to court and get the ticket dismissed, if that failed I figured I could pay the fine and costs and still walk away. Essentially I rationalized this until the costs got higher than I was willing to pay. Then I quit speeding.

As of today my mother regularly drives faster than I do. But I think she rationalizes it is because her leg is a little heavier on the accelerator of her car ever since she had the knee replacement. The metal knee weighs more and presses on the accelerator harder I guess. It just isn't her fault.

A criminal does the same mental calculus when they do something against the law. Lets look at an example of the gambling math ...

I need money today in a hurry for something really important.

If I rob this convenience store I will get enough money to fill my need and I can grab a coke and leave without paying for it too. I would steal the coke anyway so why not take the money on the way out of the gas station as well.

Begin the math ...

  
    Odds that the clerk has a shotgun behind the counter.
    10%
  
    Odds the clerk will not give me the money in the register.
    0%
  
    Odds someone else in the store stops me before I get away.
    0%
  
    Odds I get caught by the police before I can get away.
    0%
  
    Odds I get caught later.
    10%
  
    Odds I can work out a "deal" with the police if caught.
    100%
  
    Odds I can work out a "deal" withe the prosecutor if I get caught.
    100%
  
    Odds the judge with throw out my case because I was wronged somehow.
    100%
  
    Odds that the jury will find me not guilty because the prosecutor cannot prove their case.
    100%
  
    Odds that the judge will sentence me to probation rather than jail because stealing from a convenience store is not really a big deal.  It is normal isn't it?
    100%
  
    Total odds of seeing a jail cell after the first night.
    0%
  
    Odds I can get out of jail early because of over crowding and good behavior.
    100%
  
    Odds of having my sentence reduced to time served the first year.
    100%
  
    Odds of being paroled early and only filling a partial sentence in jail.
    100%

Even with all this a first time offender has a good chance of getting off easy. Lets add a variable. The store clerk gets shot in the interaction and dies...

  
    Odds of being found not guilty,
    100%
  
    Odds of being found guilty of manslaughter.
    0%
  
    Odds of the prosecutor proving second degree murder.
    0%
  
    Odds of the prosecutor proving first decree murder.
    0%
  
    Odds of the jury finding cause to add an aggravating factor to the judgement.
    0%
  
    Odds of being sentenced to life in prison.
    0%
  
    Odds of being sentenced to the death penalty.
    0%
  
    Odds of loosing an appeal.
    0%
  
    Odds of the state actually carrying out the death penalty.
    0%

For the sake of the discussion lets take the numbers as they are and not worry about extenuating demographic factors, personal evaluations of rather the 100% or 0 % extremes work in a real life situation. It won't matter what color your skin is, how good your lawyer is, or if the jury "likes you" once we change the system. If my numbers on estimation are right, and they always are because I am an enterprising criminal mastermind, the odds of me getting the death penalty even if everything goes wrong and I can not talk my way out of this are pretty slim.

I might as well go for it. Every criminal enterprise evaluates risk and reward and the math shows the $50 in the register is as good as mine.

The goal is to change the odds in such a way that the criminal rethinks their odds of survival.

continued in part 4 ...